CME Scoreboard

Prediction for CME (2024-10-03T12:48:00-CME-001)

Please enter the following information for your prediction:
SWPC ENLIL settings: 
ENLIL version: 2.9e
Resolution: medium
Ambient settings: a8b1
Ejecta settings: d4t1x1
WSA version: 2.2
GONG: mrbqs

CME input parameters
Time at 21.5Rs boundary:
Radial velocity (km/s):
Longitude (deg):
Latitude (deg):
Half-angular width (deg):

Notes:
:Product: Forecast Discussion
:Issued: 2024 Oct 04 0030 UTC
# Prepared by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center
#
Solar Activity

.24 hr Summary...
Solar activity reached high levels with six M-Class flares and one
X-Class flare. The X9.0 occurred at 03/1208 UTC from Region 3842
(S15W08, Ekc/beta-gamma-delta). The flare produced a Type II Radio Sweep
with an estimated velocity of 582 km/s, a Type IV Radio Sweep, as well
as a Castelli U-burst Tenflare. The flare had little, to no impact to
the structural integrity of Region 3842, the region continues to
maintain its complexity with shearing across the delta in the
intermediate area.

Other regions that experienced growth were Regions 3843 (S09W39,
Ehi/beta-delta) and 3844 (S15W30, Dki/beta-gamma-delta). Regions 3842
and 3848 (N13E56, Dkc/beta-gamma) are large and complex but have
remained relatively stable in their area and length.

The CME associated with the aforementioned X9.0 has been the primary
focus. Considerable dimming can be seen in GOES-16 SUVI 195 imager
around Region 3842 at 03/1217. A halo CME was observed in SOHO/Lasco
imagery starting at 03/1248 UTC with the bulk of the ejecta coming off
the south part of the disk. There were multiple eruptions to the NE and
NW which are likely sympathetic events associated to the CMEs primary
eruption but not originating out of Region 3842.

The two filament eruptions that occurred off the NE limb at 03/0748 UTC
and SW at 03/0909 UTC that were mentioned in the previous discussion
were absorbed by the X9 CME in the model depictions.

Ejecta can be seen in coronagraph imagery associated with the M6.7 that
occurred at 03/2009 from Region 3843. Analysis is underway at the time
of this writing.

.Forecast...
Solar activity is expected to be moderate (R1-R2, Minor-Moderate) with a
chance for X-class (R3-Strong or greater) flares on 04-06 Oct. ARs 3841,
3842, 3843, 3844, and 3848 are the main areas of interest due to their
size and magnetic complexity.

Energetic Particle

.24 hr Summary...
The greater than 2 MeV electron flux was at normal to moderate levels
exhibiting diurnal variance. The greater than 10 MeV proton flux was
at background levels. The 10 MeV proton flux remained at background
levels.

.Forecast...
The greater than 2 MeV electron flux is expected to continue at normal
to moderate levels reaching its peak during the diurnal maxima through
much of the 04 Oct UTC day. With the anticipated CME arrivals, electron
flux at geostationary orbit will likely become suppressed with each
arrival, rebounding to moderate levels thereafter. There is a chance for
the greater than 10 MeV proton flux reaching the S1 (Minor) threshold on
04-06 Oct due to the enhanced flare potential from multiple,
magnetically complex regions on the disk.

Solar Wind

.24 hr Summary...
Solar wind parameters were at nominal levels for much of the day with
wind speeds ranging from 300-350 km/s. Over the last six hours, wind
speeds have been on the steady rise towards 400 km/s. Total field ranged
from 3-7 nT while the Bz has component has varied between +/-5 nT. Phi
angle was negative.

.Forecast...
Solar wind parameters are expected to continue at nominal levels prior
to CME arrival. A disturbance in the parameters is expected with shock
arrival 04 Oct from the first CME and elevated parameters continuing
through 06 Oct with the second CME. The current WSA-Enlil run shows the
first CME enhancing solar wind speeds to around 600 km/s and the second
to roughly 850 km/s.

With these speeds, modeling shows a roughly 24 hour difference between
the two CME arrivals. This will result in a dampening of the solar winds
and relaxing of the magnetic field components between the two with an
immediate rise when the second CME arrives. Depending on how close the
arrival times of the CMEs will be to each other will greatly dictate the
response of the solar wind parameters. Solar wind parameters will likely
remain elevated into 06 Oct.

Geospace

.24 hr Summary...
The geomagnetic field was quiet to unsettled.

.Forecast...
With the arrival of two CMEs over the next three days the geomagnetic
field has a chance of reaching Strong (G3) geomagnetic storming levels
possibly Extreme (G4) levels. Given the strength of the two flares, the
position of the region, and the magnetic complexity of the producing
region, a Kp=7 (G3, Strong conditions) is possible during one, maybe two
synoptic periods during the three days. Current modeling suggests the
CME associated with the X7.1 flare that occurred on 01/2220 is likely to
arrive 04 Oct with possible arrival early 05 Oct and the CME associated
with the X9.0 is likely to arrive late 05 Oct, early 06 Oct. 

The current geomagnetic forecast follows the CME driven WSA-Enlil run
initialized at 03/1700 UTC on the SWPC website. The model analysis shows
a roughly 24 hour window between the two arrivals. However, there could
be a +/-8 hour time difference from these modelled times to account for
speed variability. It is possible that the first CME could arrive later
and the second CME could arrive sooner...if this scenario were to
happen, then the two CMEs would be arriving closer together - centered
on 05 Oct. - reducing the lull in solar wind parameters and making for a
stronger arrival. If this occurs there is a chance G4 (Severe)
geomagnetic storming conditions could occur and products will be
adjusted accordingly.

The previous Watches have been modified to G3 (Strong) geomagnetic storm
Watches for all three days to account for the now two CMEs and the
differencing in timing between model simulations.

:Product: Geomagnetic Forecast
:Issued: 2024 Oct 03 2205 UTC
# Prepared by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center
#
NOAA Ap Index Forecast
Observed Ap 02 Oct 007
Estimated Ap 03 Oct 017
Predicted Ap 04 Oct-06 Oct 054-094-072

NOAA Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 04 Oct-06 Oct
Active                05/05/05
Minor storm           20/15/20
Moderate storm        30/30/30
Strong-Extreme storm  35/40/35

NOAA Kp index forecast 04 Oct - 06 Oct
             Oct 04    Oct 05    Oct 06
00-03UT        3.00      5.33      6.33      
03-06UT        3.33      6.00      6.67      
06-09UT        4.00      6.33      6.33      
09-12UT        4.33      6.33      6.33      
12-15UT        6.67      6.33      5.33      
15-18UT        6.33      6.33      5.33      
18-21UT        6.33      7.00      4.67      
21-00UT        4.67      6.67      4.33

CCMC Rules of the Road: CCMC requests that users notify the CCMC, CME model/technique developers and submitting forecasters/researchers before performing event and validation studies with data from the CME Arrival Time Scoreboard. It is recommended that such studies be performed with the knowledge and collaboration of developers and submitting forecasters/researchers.

If you are looking for the official U.S. Government forecast for space weather, please go to NOAA's Space Weather Prediction Center (https://swpc.noaa.gov). This "Experimental Research Information" consists of preliminary NASA research products and should be interpreted and used accordingly.

Curator: Chiu Wiegand | NASA Official: Dr. Masha Kuznetsova | Privacy and Security Notices | Accessibility | CCMC Data Collection Consent Agreement